Analysts at the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex are optimistic about the cryptocurrency market in 2025, indicating that the market has not yet peaked based on multiple indicators. They predict that Bitcoin will reach its peak in the third to fourth quarter of next year, with the price possibly ranging between $145,000 and $189,000.
In a report released on Monday, Bitfinex stated that the current bull market reflects strong institutional demand, primarily driven by Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and spot accumulation. Historical data suggests that “we are in the middle of the cycle”, with Bitcoin’s halving expected to occur in April 2024, the market may reach its peak around the third to fourth quarter of 2025, approximately 450 days after the halving.
The report also assesses the current market conditions and future trends based on various indicators, with analysts stating:
Pi Cycle Top Indicator (Source: Bitfinex)
According to CoinGlass, the Pi Cycle Top Indicator can be used to indicate when the market is overheated. Based on past history, when the short-term moving average (i.e., the 111-day moving average shown in the chart) moves upwards and crosses the 350DMA x 2, the Bitcoin price is usually in an overheated phase.
Bitfinex analysts believe that any price corrections in 2025 will be more moderate, thanks to institutional inflows. Furthermore, based on historical cycles, the year following a halving typically sees the strongest upward momentum. Analysts also estimate that Bitcoin will reach at least the $145,000 cycle target price by mid-2025, and “could extend to $200,000 under favorable conditions”.
However, the report suggests that Bitcoin may experience volatility in the first quarter of 2025, advising investors to be cautious of overbought signs as Bitcoin approaches the cycle top.