The latest data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) indicates that the services index has surged to 54.1, reaching its highest level in nearly two years, surpassing the market expectation of 53.5. Meanwhile, the prices paid index has significantly increased from 58.2 to 64.4, indicating rising cost pressures. The employment index has fallen to 51.4, below the previous value, reflecting that while the services sector is experiencing robust growth, it still faces challenges in terms of employment and costs.
This data suggests that inflationary pressures may be heating up again, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain a heightened vigilance regarding monetary policy. As the market has delayed its expectations for the first interest rate cut to June or July 2025, not only is the possibility of a rate cut in January ruled out, but the March meeting is also viewed with skepticism. This shift has led to a downturn in market sentiment, with all major indices declining. Currently, BTC and altcoins have faced significant losses, with BTC falling back to the $96,000 level and ETH dropping to around $3,300. Meme coins have been particularly hard hit, with highly sought-after tokens like PNUT, WIF, and NEIRO plummeting to lows last seen during the significant drop in December.
With approximately two weeks remaining until Trump assumes office, relevant cryptocurrency legislation is still under discussion. It is assessed that the overall trend will not change significantly before then. Last week’s medium to long-term upward trend was disrupted by the significant drop following the release of yesterday’s data, resulting in a short-term shift to volatility. Currently, Bitcoin support lies around $92,000, while resistance is at $102,000. During this period, the GT Radar investment portfolio will reduce leverage and refocus some tokens on the Coinbase 50 or politically related cryptocurrencies. The recently popular AI Agent sector is too new, and most tokens are traded on-chain, making them unavailable for inclusion in the trading options. However, some AI-related tokens will still be added to the portfolio.
**Table of Contents**
– Poor Performance of Altcoins; On-chain Funds Shift to AI Agent Sector
– 2025 Investment Theme: Focus on AI Agent Sector and Diversified Allocation
– Binance Trading Analysis
**GTRadar – BULL**
**GTRadar – Balanced**
**GTRadar – Potential Public Chain OKX**
**Focus News**
**Poor Performance of Altcoins; On-chain Funds Shift to AI Agent Sector**
In the past two weeks, although Bitcoin temporarily rebounded above $100,000, most altcoins did not follow suit, showing little upward momentum and a significant drop in trading activity. In contrast, AI Agents, concentrated on-chain, have attracted substantial capital inflows due to their technological innovation, application potential, and, most importantly, “hype.” According to data from Coingecko, the AI Agent and AI concept sectors have outperformed most other concept sectors in the past seven days, underscoring the strength of AI Agents in the current market.
On the other hand, Trump is set to officially assume the presidency on January 20, which is undoubtedly the most closely watched topic globally. Some political meme coins (such as $trump and $maga) have experienced short-term increases due to the return of attention. However, it is essential to note that since the emergence of the AI Agent concept, market enthusiasm for purely meme coins has significantly declined. Especially for tokens that have not made it to major exchanges (like Binance), prices generally lack support after the initial hype, making them susceptible to significant corrections. The fact that meme coins related to Trump lost half their value after his election demonstrates this risk. Therefore, the speculation window for political meme coins is very short, and participants are advised to exit promptly after securing profits.
**2025 Investment Theme: Focus on AI Agent Sector and Diversified Allocation**
The investment theme for 2025 will center on AI Agents. Recently, Microsoft’s AI development report and the support from NVIDIA’s founder Jensen Huang have emphasized that the market for AI Agents could reach several trillion dollars, far exceeding the current market valuation of $1.7 billion. Of course, AI Agents in the cryptocurrency field cannot be compared to those in large tech companies, given the disparity in resources, technology, and talent. However, the cryptocurrency market has always thrived on “attention economy,” similar to the metaverse craze in 2022; as long as the narrative and sector are correct, related assets have upward momentum.
Many AI and AI Agent-related projects have emerged, such as Virtual, Ai16z, Swarms, Act, and Clanker as AI Agent deployment platforms; zerebro and aixbt as AI Agents; and fartcoin as an AI meme coin. However, most of these assets can only be purchased on-chain, resulting in relatively poor liquidity and higher risk compared to other tokens, posing a higher barrier for ordinary investors. Hence, thorough consideration is essential before investing.
In addition to the AI Agent concept sector, we also recommend paying attention to the following sectors and assets for diversified allocation:
– RWA (Real World Asset Tokenization): As U.S. regulations are expected to become clearer following Trump’s inauguration, this is undoubtedly positive for the heavily regulated RWA sector.
– DeFi (Decentralized Finance): As long as the bull market continues, some DeFi protocols that have advanced to infrastructure will continue to thrive.
– DeSci (Decentralized Science) and Depin: Exploring future technology-driven innovative scenarios.
– Projects selected by Coinbase 50 and other well-known institutions: such as assets highlighted by the SEC and BlackRock.
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The returns of “GTRadar – BULL,” “GTRadar – Balanced,” and “GTRadar – Potential Public Chain OKX” over the past 7 days have been -5.48%, -4.55%, and -6.28% respectively, while their 30-day returns have been -16.21%, -6.32%, and -6.62%. Currently, “GTRadar – BULL” holds a net long position of 30%, primarily in BTC and ETH. “GTRadar – Balanced” holds a net long position of about 10%, focused on BTC and BNB. “GTRadar – Potential Public Chain” holds a net long position of approximately 30%, primarily in ETH.
Investors who frequently change their investment portfolios tend to have lower long-term returns than those who continuously follow a single strategy. Do not hastily end following a strategy due to short-term pullbacks; rather, as shown in the curve chart, pullbacks can represent good entry points for following strategies, while frequent trading can significantly reduce return rates.
**MicroStrategy’s stock has plummeted over 45%! Analysts: The leveraged Bitcoin narrative is gradually losing its appeal**
According to the latest report from 10x Research, MicroStrategy’s stock has declined over 45% from its peak, indicating a significant shift in investor sentiment regarding its leveraged Bitcoin investment strategy. Analysts point out that market investors have gradually realized that the cost of holding Bitcoin indirectly through MicroStrategy is much higher than buying directly, leading to the diminishing attractiveness of its “leveraged Bitcoin investment tool.”
**Coinbase Premium Index Falls to Lowest Level in 12 Months**
The Coinbase premium index, an important indicator of demand in the U.S. Bitcoin retail market, has recently fallen to its lowest level in 12 months. Market analysts warn that this could pose challenges to Bitcoin’s short-term price recovery.
**Ethena Releases 2025 Roadmap, Launching Multiple Products Including iUSDe to Enter Traditional Finance**
Guy Young, the founder of the Ethereum stablecoin protocol Ethena, released the 2025 roadmap “Convergence” on Friday, outlining Ethena’s achievements in 2024 and plans for 2025, stating that its next growth will largely depend on exporting products to traditional finance. The roadmap indicates that upcoming products from Ethena include the wrapped token iUSDe, perpetual contracts, and the Ethereal centralized exchange, as well as on-chain options and structured product agreements Derive.
**Significant Decline in Bitcoin Exchange Inflows and Miner Outflows May Indicate Reduced Selling Pressure**
Bitcoin exchange inflows (total Bitcoin transferred to exchanges) and miner outflows (the amount of Bitcoin miners send to exchanges) have significantly decreased since November 2024, which may indicate a reduction in market selling pressure.
**Decline in Staked Ether Quantity; Lido’s Dominance Challenged**
In October 2024, the amount of Ethereum (ETH) locked on liquidity staking platforms surpassed the significant threshold of 14 million. However, entering 2025, this figure has begun to decline. As of January 5, 2025 (Sunday), the total amount of ETH locked on liquidity staking platforms has fallen to 13.78 million, down from the record of 13.85 million at the end of November 2024.
**Metaplanet Plans to Increase Bitcoin Holdings to 10,000 BTC This Year**
Simon Gerovich, CEO of Japanese investment firm Metaplanet, stated on the social media platform X last week that Metaplanet plans to increase its Bitcoin reserves to 10,000 BTC by “utilizing the most effective capital market tools available to us.” The company currently holds approximately 1,761.98 BTC (valued at about $175.4 million), with a total cost of 20.872 billion yen.
**BitMEX Founder Arthur Hayes Warns that Trump’s Policies May Not Materialize, Suggests “This Moment” Could See Bitcoin Peak**
Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX, used a metaphor of a ski resort in Hokkaido in his latest article, comparing dollar liquidity to snow and the “high expectations that Trump’s policies may bring disappointment” to bamboo leaves hidden under the snow, predicting future trends in the global investment market, including Bitcoin.
**Bitfinex Report: Bitcoin Seller Liquidity is Dwindling, with Potential for Further Upside in the Mid-Term**
Cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex stated in a report released on Monday that while Bitcoin may experience a deeper correction in the first quarter of 2025, the broader supply tightening and bullish sentiment among miners indicate that Bitcoin still has potential for further upside in the mid-term.
**CFTC Chief Rostin Behnam to Step Down on Trump’s Inauguration Day**
Rostin Behnam, chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), told the Financial Times that he will step down on January 20, the day of Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration. Additionally, Behnam expressed concerns during the interview about the inadequacy of regulations surrounding digital assets (including Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies).
**U.S. JOLTS Job Openings Data and ISM Services Index Douse Rate Cut Expectations, Stock and Crypto Markets Plunge**
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the November JOLTS job openings unexpectedly increased from 7.8 million to 8.1 million, while the December ISM services index soared to 54.1, exceeding expectations of 53.5. These two reports shook the already tense bond market, causing the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds to rise by 5 basis points to 4.68%, leading to a decline in U.S. stock and cryptocurrency assets.
The above content does not constitute any financial investment advice. All data is sourced from the GT Radar official announcement, and each user may experience slight discrepancies due to different entry and exit prices, with past performance not necessarily indicative of future results!