Market Analysis – BTC Falls Below $92,000 Key Support and Quickly Rebounds, Contracts Experience Bullish and Bearish Burst
Strong US Economic Data
PPI Data Lower Than Expected
CPI Announcement Tonight
Binance Follow Order Analysis
GTRadar – BULL
GTRadar – Balanced
GTRadar – Potential Public Chain OKX
Focus News
This week, BTC first fell below the key support of $92,000, causing panic in the market and rumors of many KOLs liquidating their positions. However, the market quickly rebounded, with BTC rising nearly 10% within two days, causing both long and short positions to be liquidated, totaling about $800 million.
With the rebound of BTC, the overall market saw a wave of gains yesterday, with the best-performing sector being the AI Agent sector, which saw gains of 10% – 20% or more, dispelling the gloom from the previous AI Agent sector crash. The continuous listing of AI-related coins on Binance reflects the market’s interest in this sector. AI now seems to be filled with fantasies, similar to the DEFI Summer a few years ago. The previous weekly report also dedicated a considerable amount of space to introduce the AI Agent sector. If you want to invest in related sectors, it is worth paying attention to the latest listings on Binance, such as COOKIE and AIXBT.
According to The Washington Post, Trump is preparing to issue executive orders related to cryptocurrency and inviting industry leaders to formulate legislative strategies. His new appointments demonstrate his emphasis on the AI and crypto industry. With Trump about to take office, Trump-related or political concept coins may be hyped again, such as BTC, AAVE, XRP, ADA, SOL, and DOGE.
Regarding the BTC price trend, the current price has returned to the consolidation zone above $92,000. In the short term, there is no significant direction. However, there are two key points to pay attention to in the next week. First, whether the rally can effectively break through the yellow downward trend line, especially with a significant breakout accompanied by trading volume. Second, the effectiveness of the $92,000 support below should still be monitored, and it is advisable to reduce positions if it falls below.
The US ISM Service Industry Data and Employment Data on January 8 and Non-Farm Employment Data on January 10 all indicate that the US labor market is stronger than expected, showing steady expansion. Although this is good news for the economy and suggests that the risks of a hard landing caused by the Federal Reserve’s previous interest rate cuts have been significantly reduced, it also implies that the Federal Reserve may maintain relatively high interest rates in response to economic growth and inflationary pressures.
On the other hand, Trump’s inauguration on January 20 is expected to bring expansionary fiscal policies such as tax cuts and infrastructure investments, which may increase the fiscal deficit and increase the supply of government bonds. Combined with increased uncertainty about the future economy and policy direction, concerns about continued inflationary pressures deepen. Under the combined effect of these factors, US Treasury bond yields have risen sharply, putting pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin and US stocks.
Fortunately, the recently released US Producer Price Index (PPI) data was lower than expected, indicating that producer-level inflationary pressures have eased. This leads investors to expect that the Federal Reserve may maintain the current rate policy, thereby reducing corporate financing costs. As a result, US stocks and cryptocurrencies have been boosted since yesterday, especially technology and growth stocks that are sensitive to interest rates.
From the impact of the above data releases on the market, it is not difficult to see that the current macroeconomic direction has become the biggest influencing factor for the stock and cryptocurrency markets. The upcoming release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is even more important as it is the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation indicator. How the upcoming CPI data performs may likely affect the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. However, the market currently tends to believe that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady in January, even if the CPI data is slightly lower or higher than expected.
Overall, if tonight’s CPI data is lower than expected, it may further drive the rebound of risk assets. However, if the CPI data is higher than expected, it may cause a pullback in risk assets. Additionally, the banking industry will release its financial reports this week, including major financial giants such as JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Bank of America. The performance of these institutions’ financial reports will also be the focus of investors.
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The returns of “GTRadar – BULL,” “GTRadar – Balanced,” and “GTRadar – Potential Public Chain OKX” in the past 7 days were +1.89%, -1.08%, and -12.21%, respectively. The returns in the past 30 days were -19.10%, -10.68%, and -12.42%, respectively.
Currently, “GTRadar – BULL” holds a net long position of 20%, mainly in BTC and DOGE.
Currently, “GTRadar – Balanced” holds a net short position of about 10%, mainly in SAND and SOL.
Currently, “GTRadar – Potential Public Chain” holds a net short position of about 10%, mainly in AVAX.
Followers who frequently change their investment portfolios tend to have lower long-term returns compared to those who consistently follow a single portfolio. Do not easily end the follow order due to short-term pullbacks. From the perspective of the curve chart, a pullback is actually a good time to start following. In and out trading only significantly reduces the return rate.
The US Department of Justice approves the sale of $6.5 billion worth of Bitcoin seized in the Silk Road case.
Despite promising not to sell the Bitcoin confiscated by the US government during his campaign and to use it as the strategic reserve of the United States, President-elect Trump is reported to have approved the sale of $6.5 billion worth of Bitcoin seized in the Silk Road case on December 30. Bitwise Survey: 56% of US Financial Advisors More Inclined to Invest in Cryptocurrencies After Trump’s Election Victory
In a recent Bitwise survey conducted from November 14 to December 20, a total of 430 financial advisors were interviewed about their attitudes towards cryptocurrencies. Among the respondents, 56% said that they are more likely to invest in cryptocurrencies this year due to the election results on November 5. UK Legislation Recognizes “Staking” as a Blockchain Validation Mechanism, Excluding It from the Scope of Collective Investment Schemes
The UK Treasury has amended the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (FSMA) to exclude cryptocurrency staking from the scope of collective investment schemes. According to the amendment, staking of Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) will only be recognized as a blockchain validation process and will no longer be subject to regulatory requirements related to collective investment schemes. This amendment will take effect from January 31. RWA Project Usual’s New Exit Mechanism Leads to USD0++ Decoupling
Recently, the decentralized finance (DeFi) market has experienced turbulence, with the price of stablecoin USD0++ on decentralized exchanges (DEX) falling to $0.94, a 6% decoupling from its expected price of $1. The reasons behind this not only involve the protocol’s newly introduced “dual exit mechanism” but also reflect the complex tokenomics and user behavior games. Stronger-than-expected US Labor Data for December
According to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, non-farm payrolls in the US increased by 256,000 in December, surpassing the market’s expectations of 160,000. The unemployment rate in December was 4.1%, lower than the market’s expectation of 4.2%. US Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Proposes Extending the Electronic Fund Transfer Act to Cryptocurrencies
According to the Financial Times, the US Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) has proposed expanding the definition of the Electronic Fund Transfer Act to include any “asset used as currency,” which includes stablecoins and other similar alternative assets. This measure will require cryptocurrency service providers to be responsible for compensating customer account losses resulting from hacking attacks or unauthorized transactions, aligning the standards of digital wallets with bank accounts. TX Bondholder Representative Sunil Reveals Repayment Plan Schedule
According to his tweet, the first round of repayment plans will target “convenience classes” of bondholders with amounts less than $50,000. This round of repayments will total approximately $1.2 billion and is expected to start as early as February 25, with the allocation period possibly lasting until March 4. Prominent trader Ansem hints at entering the market for bargain hunting
Regarding the recent trend of Bitcoin, prominent trader and KOL Ansem recently hinted at bargain hunting in a post on X. He stated, “I feel that Bitcoin around this price range (around $91-92K) may experience a very frustrating low point that looks like it’s about to collapse but actually won’t. I plan to go long before the inauguration ceremony and see if the market overreacts to the hawkish statements of the Federal Reserve and the panic about the potential sell-off by the Department of Justice.” BitMEX Founder Arthur Hayes Liquidates ENA Tokens
According to on-chain data, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes transferred 7.97 million ENA tokens from his wallet address on January 13, with a total value of approximately $6.536 million. It is worth mentioning that just three weeks ago, Arthur Hayes transferred 9 million ENA tokens, with a total value of approximately $10.9 million, and all of these ENA tokens eventually flowed into exchanges. Tether, the issuer of USDT stablecoin, will relocate its headquarters to El Salvador
According to an official announcement, Tether has obtained permission to relocate its headquarters to El Salvador. In addition, there have been reports that top Tether executives have recently purchased real estate worth millions of dollars in El Salvador. Trump is rumored to issue executive orders on his first day in office, possibly involving the abolition of the SEC’s controversial accounting guidance SAB 121.
According to The Washington Post, citing informed sources, US President-elect Donald Trump plans to issue executive orders on his first day in office, possibly revoking the controversial cryptocurrency accounting guidance of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
The above content does not constitute any financial investment advice. All data is from the GT Radar official website announcement. Each user may have slight differences in performance due to different entry and exit prices, and past performance does not guarantee future results!