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Market Analysis – BTC Breaks Below $90,000, Altcoins Rarely Strengthen, Short-Term Bottom-Fishing Opportunities Arise
Altcoin Downtrend Slows, Signs of Market Stabilization Begin to Emerge
SOL Declines Over 50%, Has It Already Been Priced In?
Market Environment Unfavorable for Risk Assets
Deadline for Tariff Delays Approaches for Canada and Mexico
Consumer Confidence Index Declines in February
Market Focus on NVIDIA Earnings Report and PCE Index
NVIDIA Earnings Report
January PCE Index
Short-Term Market Dynamics Forecast
Binance Trading Analysis
GTRadar – BULL
GTRadar – Balance
GTRadar – Potential Public Chain OKX
Focus News
BTC has fallen below $90,000 for the first time since Trump took office, intensifying market panic. Additionally, last week Bybit suffered a hacker attack, resulting in the theft of $1.5 billion worth of ETH, setting a record for the highest amount stolen in cryptocurrency history. Both ETH and SOL have dropped over 10% in the past week, with some altcoins declining by 70% to 80% since the December bull market peak, creating an extremely pessimistic market atmosphere. The well-known market indicator, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, currently scores only 21, indicating extreme fear.
Despite the overall market downturn, it is noteworthy that BTC’s decline has been relatively larger, with BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance) decreasing, indicating that the altcoin market is relatively resilient and even performs stronger during rebounds. Some altcoins have approached their limit on declines, leading to a return of funds and signs of a short-term bottoming out.
Yesterday, the sectors that rebounded strongly included:
Meme Coins: PNUT, NEIRO, and WEN showed impressive performance with relatively strong trends.
DeFi Sector: The SEC announced the termination of the investigation into UNI, which prompted a slight recovery in the DeFi sector.
SOL has fallen from a high of nearly $300 to $144, with a market cap evaporating by over 50%, making it a hard-hit area in this market correction. In addition to the overall market slump, SOL’s significant pullback is influenced by the following factors:
On-chain trading volume has decreased significantly, leading to reduced market activity.
On March 1, 11.2 million SOL from FTX’s bankrupt assets will be unlocked, causing the market to preemptively respond to sell pressure and leading to panic selling.
However, these negative factors may have already been priced in, and SOL’s current price (at $144) offers relatively high cost-performance, potentially providing a buying opportunity for long-term investors. As market panic subsides, funds may flow back, driving some quality coins to stabilize and rebound.
BTC is short-term oversold and has a demand for a rebound.
BTC recently fell below $90,000, testing the $86,000 support level, increasing market panic. Technically, BTC continues to be pressured by a red downtrend line, with the $86,000 – $88,000 range acting as a short-term support area, where trading volume has significantly increased, showing some supportive effect. It may be worth attempting to enter the market in the short term, with a stop-loss set at $86,000. The GT Radar portfolio will also begin to gradually enter bottom-fishing opportunities.
Affected by the new U.S. tariff regime, multiple economic data, and corporate earnings reports, U.S. stocks have not performed well this week, and the cryptocurrency market is naturally struggling as well. The following factors will continue to influence investment market direction in the short term.
Although the imposition of new tariffs was previously delayed through negotiations, the deadline for tariff delays is approaching. President Trump emphasized on the 24th that tariffs of 25% on Canada and Mexico will be imposed as scheduled next month. Trump stated at the White House: “We are imposing tariffs on time, and it seems that progress is quite rapid.”
This action has once again plunged the already unstable market into panic, as Trump’s high tariffs, while helping to enhance the competitiveness of U.S. domestic industries, could also lead to further increases in U.S. prices, potentially causing inflation, which has only recently been alleviated, to rise again.
In addition to policies, the economic data released this week has also brought bad news. The latest data from the Conference Board shows that the Consumer Confidence Index for February has declined for the third consecutive month, registering the largest drop since August 2021 and reaching a new low since June 2024, further demonstrating the pressure that the uncertainty of Trump’s government policies has brought to American households.
Specifically, the Consumer Confidence Index fell 7 points to 98.3 in February, marking the third consecutive month of decline, below economists’ expectations of 102.7 and well below the revised previous value of 105.3. The report indicates that consumers are more pessimistic about the current and future labor market conditions, as well as the outlook for income and business conditions.
NVIDIA is set to release its fourth-quarter earnings report on February 26, after U.S. stock market hours. As a leading company in the technology and AI sectors, NVIDIA’s earnings report is viewed as a health indicator for the technology industry, particularly regarding demand in the AI and data center markets. Strong earnings reports could help boost investor confidence in tech stocks; conversely, disappointing results could lead to selling pressure, impacting the entire market.
According to Visible Alpha data, revenue for this quarter is estimated at $38.32 billion, a 73% year-over-year increase, while net profit is projected at $21.08 billion, a 64% growth compared to $12.84 billion in the same period last year.
In addition to NVIDIA’s earnings report, the January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index to be released on February 28 is also a key focus for the market this week. Since the PCE index and core PCE index are key indicators monitored by the Federal Reserve for inflation, they could influence expectations for future interest rate decisions. Currently, the market anticipates that the PCE and core PCE will drop by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively, to 2.5% and 2.6%.
If the PCE exceeds expectations, it would indicate increased inflationary pressures in the U.S., further delaying the Federal Reserve’s timeline for interest rate cuts and negatively impacting the overall market. Additionally, high inflation may make bonds more attractive compared to stocks, leading investors to shift towards the bond market.
Overall, short-term market trends can be categorized into the following scenarios:
Optimistic Scenario: If economic data shows strong growth (e.g., stable PCE inflation) and NVIDIA’s earnings report exceeds expectations, the market may continue to rise, particularly in tech stocks.
Cautious Scenario: If economic data shows mixed signals (e.g., PCE inflation higher than expected), and NVIDIA’s earnings report meets expectations, the market may remain stable, but volatility will increase.
Pessimistic Scenario: If economic data indicates an economic slowdown (e.g., an increase in initial unemployment claims, PCE inflation higher than expected), and NVIDIA’s earnings report falls short of market expectations, the market may face downward pressure, particularly in tech stocks.
Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies generally correlate with tech stocks; thus, the performance of tech stocks also represents the potential direction of the cryptocurrency market.
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The yields for ‘GTRadar – BULL’, ‘GTRadar – Balance’, and ‘GTRadar – Potential Public Chain OKX’ over the past 7 days are -1.71%, +0.56%, and -3.81%, respectively, while the yields over the past 30 days are -6.9%, +0.64%, and -2.9%.
Currently, ‘GTRadar – BULL’ has no positions.
Currently, ‘GTRadar – Balance’ holds a net short position of approximately 5% primarily in SOL.
Currently, ‘GTRadar – Potential Public Chain’ has no positions.
Long-term followers who frequently change their investment portfolios tend to achieve lower returns than those who consistently follow a single set. Do not hastily end your following due to short-term pullbacks; in fact, a pullback can be a good time to start following, as entering and exiting can significantly reduce returns.
Trump Criticizes Biden Administration’s Antipathy Towards Cryptocurrency, Reiterates Commitment to Making America the “Crypto Capital”
Former President Donald Trump recently stated at the Future Investment Initiative (FII) conference held in Miami that Bitcoin has reached an all-time high, reflecting his commitment to making the U.S. the “crypto capital.” Additionally, Trump criticized the SEC during the Biden administration, claiming it is overly hostile towards cryptocurrency, and emphasized that this war is now completely over.
Nigeria Sues Binance: Seeks $79.5 Billion in Damages and Additional $2 Billion in Taxes
According to Reuters, the Nigerian government has officially filed a lawsuit against Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, demanding $79.5 billion in economic damages and an additional $2 billion in taxes. The government accuses Binance of contributing to the devaluation of the Naira and detained two senior executives of the company in 2024 because the cryptocurrency platform became a primary channel for Naira transactions.
SEC Accepts 21Shares and Grayscale’s Ether ETF Staking Applications
The SEC officially accepted the staking applications for Ether ETFs from 21Shares and Grayscale in the past week. If approved, the ETF will be able to stake its held Ether (ETH), allowing investors to earn staking rewards. Additionally, Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett cited sources revealing that the current SEC working group is quite interested in “staking mechanisms.”
Bybit Exchange Hacked for Nearly $1.5 Billion in Ether
Bybit exchange was hacked over the weekend, resulting in the theft of ETH and related derivatives valued at $1.43 billion. According to statistics, this incident marks the highest amount stolen in a single hack in cryptocurrency history, far exceeding the second-ranked Ronin cross-chain bridge attack. Fortunately, with assistance from various parties and Bybit’s own financial capabilities, the platform covered all losses, causing no harm to its users.
Pump.fun Reportedly to Personally Launch AMM
According to community disclosures, the meme coin issuance platform Pump.fun in the Solana ecosystem appears to be developing its own Automated Market Maker (AMM) liquidity pool, with the feature currently under testing at http://amm.pump.fun. Following this news, the price of the Raydium token associated with Pump.fun saw a significant decline.
Crypto Platform Infini Hacked for Nearly $50 Million, Founder Uses Personal Funds for Full Compensation
Blockchain security firm SlowMist announced on Monday that the smart contracts of the crypto platform Infini were attacked, resulting in approximately $50 million being stolen. Infini’s founder, Christian, stated after the hack that the platform’s withdrawal functions remained normal and that he would use personal funds to fully compensate the losses.
80% of SOL Trades Concentrated in Bearish Options! Deribit Whales Exhibit Strong Bearish Sentiment
According to CoinDesk, Deribit’s block trades for SOL options reached $32.39 million last week, accounting for nearly 25% of the exchange’s total options trading volume of $130.74 million. According to Amberdata’s data, this is the “second-highest” percentage of block trades in history.
Strategy Completes $2 Billion Convertible Bond Issuance and Increases Holdings of 20,356 Bitcoins
American software company Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) announced on Monday that it has completed the issuance of $2 billion in zero-coupon convertible senior notes maturing in 2030, with plans to use the net proceeds for general corporate purposes, including the acquisition of Bitcoin and as operating capital.
SBF Posts on X for the First Time in Two Years, FTT Soars 30% in One Hour
Currently incarcerated FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) posted a series of tweets on X about employee layoffs and challenges in corporate management for the first time in two years. This sudden tweet caused FTT, which has already become a meme coin, to surge over 30% within one hour, injecting new topics into a sluggish market.
U.S. SEC Accepts Grayscale’s Cardano Spot ETF Application
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has accepted the proposal submitted by NYSE Arca, a fully electronic exchange under the New York Stock Exchange, on behalf of Grayscale to apply for the listing and trading of a Cardano spot exchange-traded fund (ETF).
Citadel Securities, Led by Billionaire Ken Griffin, Planning to Enter the Cryptocurrency Market
Renowned market maker Citadel Securities, led by billionaire Ken Griffin, is seeking to become a liquidity provider in the cryptocurrency market, betting that former President Donald Trump’s support for the industry will bring new development opportunities for this asset class.
U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs Experience Massive Capital Outflows, Market Sentiment Turns Cautious
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of over $516.4 million on Monday (February 24), marking the fifth-largest single-day capital outflow since their launch in January 2024. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs also faced net outflows of $78 million on the same day, primarily from BlackRock’s ETHA, which saw a total outflow of $100 million over three consecutive days.
SEC Ends Lawsuits and Investigations Against Several Cryptocurrency-Related Companies
According to multiple media reports, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has terminated its lawsuits against Robinhood and Coinbase this week, while also withdrawing its investigation into Uniswap Labs and will not take further enforcement action.
Strategy’s Bitcoin Premium Crashes, “Bitcoin Expansion Strategy” May Be Forced to Slow Down
The premium of Strategy’s market capitalization relative to its Bitcoin holdings has fallen from 3.4 in November 2024 to 1.6 in February 2025. This decline indicates that the capital available for further Bitcoin purchases may be restricted, forcing the company to slow down its aggressive Bitcoin acquisition strategy.
The above content does not constitute any financial investment advice, and all data is sourced from GT Radar’s official announcements. Each user may experience slight discrepancies due to different entry and exit prices, and past performance does not guarantee future results!