Market Analysis – Gradual Recovery after Market Crash, Avoid Using Leverage Impatiently, Wait for Q1 of Next Year
MicroStrategy Reduces Its Purchasing of Coins
Will MicroStrategy’s Earnings Report Before the “Lock-up Period” Affect the Market?
Analysis of Following Binance
GTRadar – BULL
GTRadar – Balanced
GTRadar – Potential Public Chain OKX
Focus News
It can be said that the past week has experienced the largest decline since this bull market started. Both the number of liquidations and the amount involved have reached new highs in recent times. The decline in altcoins has also surpassed everyone’s expectations. The prices of many altcoins have fallen back to where they started, as if the bull market never happened. Graduation articles are flooding social media, which has indeed proven that only profits in hand are real earnings, and paper wealth only exists until it is realized. The cryptocurrency market can change dramatically in a day.
After a few days of heavy losses, the market saw a significant rebound yesterday. BTC bounced from its low point of $92,500 to a high of $99,487, a rebound of about 6%. Altcoins also recovered at the same time, but the overall prices are still far from the high points of last week. The recent market focus has been on AI Agent, desci, and platform tokens. Among them, the performance of platform tokens has been particularly strong, with BNB, BGB, and GT all experiencing continuous increases, with the latter two even reaching new all-time highs.
As for the next strategy, last week’s weekly report has already mentioned that there may be oscillations before and after Christmas. Considering that the current stage is the first significant rebound after a major decline and the rest period for funds in Europe and the United States, the chances of immediately returning to the high point in the short term are not significant. The recent large increase in cryptocurrencies belongs to mid- to late-stage coins in terms of market value, and the general direction has not changed much. Therefore, GT Radar reduced the leverage of each portfolio last week to avoid unnecessary losses in oscillations. The real opportunity for a significant increase will be in Q1 next year. The chart below also shows the increase in ETH in Q1 over the years, which is indeed the best performing quarter compared to other quarters. Therefore, it is advisable to use low leverage or more conservative grid strategies in the near future.
Listed company MicroStrategy announced its purchase of $561 million worth of Bitcoin this week, with an average purchase price of $106,662. According to past records, this is the company’s seventh consecutive week of buying Bitcoin. However, the announcement of MicroStrategy’s purchase actually caused Bitcoin to fall further because the amount of Bitcoin purchased by the company is much lower than in previous weeks (about only one-third of the previous week’s purchase). This has raised doubts about the company’s willingness to buy at this price level.
On the other hand, MicroStrategy is about to enter the “lock-up period” before its earnings report. During this period (about 4 to 6 weeks), insiders will be prohibited from trading the company’s stock or related securities, and fundraising actions such as convertible bonds and additional share issuances by MicroStrategy will also be restricted. Although the regulations do not explicitly prohibit “acquiring Bitcoin” and other significant asset transactions, they may be included in the company’s internal restrictions. Therefore, it is generally believed that MicroStrategy may not be able to participate in the market for the next 4 to 6 weeks and continue to absorb market supply. Data shows that Bitcoin has shown a stable upward trend during the MicroStrategy buying period for the past 7 weeks, with last week being the only time it declined. In addition to the negative news from the Federal Reserve, the weakening buying power of MicroStrategy may also be a potential factor.
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“GTRadar – BULL”, “GTRadar – Balanced”, and “GTRadar – Potential Public Chain OKX” have a 7-day return rate of +0.39%, -0.63%, and -1.63%, respectively. The 30-day return rates are -2.5%, +3%, and -0.57%, respectively.
Currently, “GTRadar – BULL” has a net long position of 10%, mainly in BTC and ETH.
Currently, “GTRadar – Balanced” has a net long position of about 5%, mainly in BTC and BNB.
Currently, “GTRadar – Potential Public Chain” has a net long position of about 10%, mainly in ETH.
Followers who frequently change their investment portfolios tend to have lower long-term returns compared to those who consistently follow a single portfolio. Do not end your follow-up easily due to short-term retracements. From a curve perspective, retracements are actually good entry points. Continuous entry and exit will significantly reduce the rate of return.
The Federal Reserve implies a slowdown in interest rate cuts, causing a heavy blow to the US stock market and Bitcoin.
Although economists and analysts had anticipated a possible slowdown in interest rate cuts for next year before the meeting, the Federal Reserve’s officials’ suggestion that they only expect two interest rate cuts by 2025 still exceeded market expectations. The Federal Reserve also predicted that it may take until 2027 for inflation to return to the target of 2%, longer than the original prediction of 2026. This series of news has had a significant impact on the short-term trends of risk assets. In addition to the decline in the three major US stock indexes, Bitcoin has also been falling from $106,000 for several consecutive days, briefly falling below $93,000.
El Salvador reaches an agreement with IMF, significantly restricting Bitcoin-related policies in exchange for a $1.4 billion loan.
El Salvador recently announced that as part of a $1.4 billion loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the country will make significant adjustments to its Bitcoin policies, including changing the acceptance of Bitcoin by merchants from mandatory to voluntary, gradually withdrawing the government’s involvement in the national cryptocurrency wallet Chivo, restricting tax payments to be made only in US dollars, and limiting Bitcoin-related economic activities in the public sector to a certain extent. Binance’s 2024 Cryptocurrency Market Survey: Meme Coin Holders Surpass Bitcoin, AI Concept Coins Show the Most Potential
Binance conducted a survey of 27,000 users from six continents to explore the future development trends of the cryptocurrency market. Among the respondents, 23.89% believed that the AI concept sector would stand out in 2025 and become the leader of the cryptocurrency market. In addition, meme coins ranked first in terms of users’ favorite holdings, accounting for 16.1%, demonstrating their popularity and market influence. Mo Shaikh, Co-founder and CEO of Aptos Labs, Resigns
Mo Shaikh, co-founder and CEO of Layer 1 blockchain Aptos’ development company Aptos Labs, announced on Thursday that he will step down as CEO of Aptos Labs to “start a new chapter.” However, he will continue to serve as a strategic advisor to help the company’s development. US SEC Approves First Cryptocurrency Index ETF Combining Bitcoin and Ethereum
According to documents released on Thursday, the SEC has authorized Nasdaq to list Hashdex’s “Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index US ETF” and authorized Cboe BZX to list Franklin Templeton’s “Franklin Crypto Index ETF.” The documents show that the proportions of Bitcoin and Ethereum held by these two cryptocurrency index funds will be calculated based on their free float market capitalization. US Bitcoin ETF Experiences Record $680 Million Net Outflow
According to data compiled by SoSoValue, the US Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net outflow of $680 million last Thursday, setting a new record for daily net outflows and ending a 15-day streak of net inflows. In addition, the US Ethereum spot ETF recorded a net outflow of $60.47 million on Thursday, ending an 18-day streak of net inflows. Justin Sun Continues to Sell Ethereum, Selling Nearly 180,000 ETH in the Past Month
Since November 10, Justin Sun has deposited a total of 179,101 ETH (about $645 million) into HTX, with an average price of $3,601. As of the 25th, Justin Sun still holds 106,905 stETH (worth about $372.4 million) and 56,277 eETH (worth about $195.8 million), of which 25,000 ETH ($87 million) is being released from Etherfi and may continue to be transferred to HTX in the future. Japanese Listed Company Metaplanet Increases Its Holding of 619.7 Bitcoins
Japanese company Metaplanet, listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, announced on Monday that it will increase its holding of 619.7 Bitcoins (BTC), with a total cost of 9.5 billion yen (about $60.68 million) and an average purchase price of 15,330,073 yen. Security Experts Warn that Hyperliquid Has Been Targeted by North Korean Hackers
According to information shared by cybersecurity researcher Tayvano on X, multiple North Korean hacker-associated addresses are conducting transactions on the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid, claiming that the North Korean hackers are not trading but testing. At the same time, Tayvano continues to call on Hyperliquid to take this issue seriously. Trump Nominates Stephen Miran as Chairman of the Economic Advisory Committee, Appoints Bo Hines to Lead the “Cryptocurrency Committee”
US President-elect Donald Trump announced on Sunday on his social media platform, Truth Social, that he has nominated economist and former advisor Stephen Miran as Chairman of the Economic Advisory Committee. The committee will provide economic policy and strategy recommendations to the executive branch. Uniswap Layer 2 Network Unichain Plans to Launch Public Mainnet in Early 2025
Uniswap’s development company, Uniswap Labs, announced over the weekend that its Ethereum Layer 2 network, Unichain, is expected to launch its public mainnet in early 2025 and plans to integrate permissionless proof-of-stake on the first day of the mainnet’s launch. MicroStrategy Announces the Purchase of Approximately $561 Million Worth of 5,262 Bitcoins
According to SEC documents disclosed by MicroStrategy on Monday, the company acquired approximately 5,262 Bitcoins with an additional expenditure of approximately $561 million between December 16 and December 22, with an average purchase price of around $106,662. As of December 22, 2024, MicroStrategy and its subsidiaries hold approximately 444,262 Bitcoins, with a total cost of approximately $27.7 billion and an average purchase price of around $62,257. Buying Bitcoin as a company reserve asset? Robinhood CEO: Discussed, but no plans at the moment
Robinhood CEO Vladimir Tenev recently stated in an interview on Anthony Pompliano’s program that with Robinhood’s growing interest in cryptocurrencies, the idea of “Bitcoin reserves” is occasionally brought up. However, apart from holding some Bitcoin to meet customer trading needs, the company currently has no plans to hold Bitcoin as an investment asset. MicroStrategy Plans to Issue Billions of Shares to Purchase More Bitcoin
According to a 14A proxy statement submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the proposed plan intends to increase the Class A common stock from 330 million shares to 10.33 billion shares and the preferred stock from 5 million shares to 1.005 billion shares. The company stated that the proposed share issuance will support its “21/21 Plan” (a $42 billion Bitcoin purchase plan).
The above content does not constitute any financial investment advice. All data comes from GT Radar’s official announcements. Each user may have slight differences in performance due to different entry and exit prices, and past performance does not guarantee future results!