Insights from ABCDE Investment Research Partners on the Prospects of Based Rollup Solana and Emerging EVM Public Chains

Author: Lao Bai, Research Partner at ABCDE Capital
Yesterday
Regarding the Challenges Facing ETH on Twitter
This has sparked a lot of private messages and comments from friends, and I would like to summarize some points and provide a follow-up.
1. Is Based Rollup the solution to ETH’s challenges?
My viewpoint is that it is difficult to say in the long term, but it will not be in the medium to short term. If Based Rollup had been the mainstream technical framework for Rollups from the outset, there would have been hope. However, that is now difficult.
First, several mainstream L2 projects have no incentive to transform into Based Rollup; why would they give up the rights and benefits they already possess? Second, the interoperability that Based Rollup has been promoting seems very hard to achieve, after discussions with other technical KOLs. It is unlikely that all Based Rollups conveniently use the same set of L1 validators for sorting and packaging, right? Third, to prevent user experience from declining, Based Rollup must introduce pre-confirmation, which resembles the initial Validium concept and poses certain security risks. There are strong objections to this technology from overseas ETH technical KOLs.
2. Are there applications that Solana can handle that ETH cannot?
The answer is that from a technical perspective, there are none, but this world has never been solely about technology.
Why have PumpFun, AI Meme, Depin, and Payfi emerged on Solana rather than ETH or any L2? This is actually the first time in ETH’s history that it faces a competitive opponent skilled in operations (What? You mention EOS and Dot? Their operations are truly… difficult to describe). How many innovations has Tencent created from scratch? QQ is a copy of ICQ, and Honor of Kings (a reference to “王者荣耀”) is a copy of LOL, yet which one hasn’t become incredibly popular and profitable? Today, Time.Fun has also migrated from Base to Solana, which is clearly not due to technical reasons but rather cultural and operational considerations.
3. Why are there no Near in AI, no IOTEX in Depin, and no BNBChain or AVAX in Game on the track distribution chart?
This distribution chart primarily reflects the distribution of hundreds of application-level primary market projects I have discussed over the past six months, many of which are still beyond public visibility and have not even disclosed external financing information. Therefore, it does not represent existing token projects in the current secondary market. Furthermore, our fund cannot cover all new projects on the market, so the sample is limited; it is merely a market distribution situation I have observed from my personal perspective, shared with everyone.
4. How can there be so many projects developing on the mainnet when Monad and MegaETH’s mainnet have not yet launched? Lao Bai, are you just trying to promote your own interests?
Star public chains are different from ordinary public chains. Even before the mainnet or even the testnet launches, there are already dozens of new projects being built and developed based on them, along with various Hacker Houses, incubation activities, and more. Monad, MegaETH, and Berachain are typical representatives of this type.
As for promoting personal interests, ABCDE is indeed one of the early investors in MegaETH, but we have not invested in Monad and Berachain. However, I still do not hesitate to praise Monad in the list, even though it is the largest competitor to our portfolio MegaETH. This is because their ecosystem is indeed well-constructed, and the technology is robust enough. The future market can accommodate two ultra-fast EVM public chains to thrive and progress together. They are competitors but also friends.
Monad – Make EVM Great Again!
MegaETH – Make Ethereum Great Again!
Original link:
Lao Bai’s X, This article is an extension of “ABCDE Research Partner: Discussing Ethereum’s Current Challenges from a Primary Market Perspective.”