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Bitcoin Derivatives Market Not Showing Bearish Bets
Bitcoin Price Has Not Decoupled from Stocks
The “Bitcoin Futures Premium Rate” typically remains between 5% and 10% in a neutral market, and when the premium exceeds 10%, it indicates bullish market sentiment. According to Cointelegraph’s report, despite Bitcoin retesting the support level of $67,000 on October 21, the annualized premium (basis rate) remains above 9%.
The Bitcoin options market further reinforces the view of stability in the derivatives market. The 25% delta skew indicator shows that the trading price of selling options is lower than that of buying options under the same conditions.
Typically, a skew between -7% and +7% is considered neutral, and the current indicator is at the border between neutral and bullish market.
Overall, derivatives traders have not shown panic in the recent price decline of Bitcoin. If traders expect further price drops, the skew should move towards zero or higher. In general, the Bitcoin derivatives market continues to demonstrate resilience.
Yesterday’s decline does not seem to be limited to the Bitcoin market alone, as the price chart suggests that Bitcoin’s price trend is similar to the intraday performance of the stock market.
Although Bitcoin is often seen as an asset unrelated to traditional markets and has shown complete decoupling from the S&P 500 index multiple times, the 40-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index in the past month still exceeds 80%, indicating a close relationship between these two asset classes.
Unlike the negative or negligible correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 observed from mid-July to mid-September, recent data suggests that both markets have been driven by similar factors. This hypothesis is supported by the increased correlation between Bitcoin and gold, which surpassed 80% on October 3.
(This article is authorized to be reproduced from GT Radar)
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