According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, the poll results of the two US presidential candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, are neck and neck, but the odds in decentralized prediction markets heavily favor Trump, raising concerns of manipulation. However, Tarek Mansour, the founder of prediction market Kalshi, refutes these claims by citing data from his own platform.
In the national polling average by Real Clear Politics, Harris leads Trump by about 1.2 percentage points. However, on the blockchain-based prediction market Polymarket, users believe that the likelihood of Trump winning has risen to 60% in the past two weeks, while Harris stands at 40%. In early October, the difference between the two was only a few percentage points. The Wall Street Journal reports that four Polymarket accounts have systematically and frequently placed bets on Trump winning the election.
Tarek Mansour from Kalshi first dismisses the claims that a few large bettors manipulate the odds in favor of Trump. He cites data from Kalshi, stating that the median bet amount for Harris ($85) is higher than Trump’s ($58), and also notes that more people on the Kalshi platform are betting on Trump, which roughly aligns with the 20-percentage point difference reflected on Polymarket.
Mansour further points out that Kalshi is a prediction market limited to US users (unlike Polymarket), countering rumors that the prediction market odds are influenced by foreign manipulation. He asserts in his conclusion, “Prediction markets are unbiased sources of new truth.”
The value of prediction markets and their utility compared to traditional polls is currently subject to debate. For example, Tesla CEO Elon Musk believes that prediction markets are more accurate than polls due to the involvement of real money. However, critics raise concerns about the effectiveness of the results from the prediction platform, as US users cannot use Polymarket.
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