Recent Global Financial Market Recovery Signs Amid Macroeconomic Policies and Political Events
Recently, global financial markets have shown signs of gradual recovery under the intertwined influences of macroeconomic policies and political events. U.S. President Trump has shifted his stance on tariff policies, and combined with potential interest rate cut signals released by the Federal Reserve, this has created a short-term breathing space for overall risk assets, leading to a structural rebound in the cryptocurrency market. Despite the price recovery, on-chain data and capital flows indicate that most traders and institutions still maintain a wait-and-see attitude, with the pace of capital entry remaining slow, suggesting that the market has yet to enter a stage of comprehensive recovery.
Macroeconomic Environment and Capital Sentiment: Short-term Recovery Under Policy Shift
The macroeconomic environment in the U.S. and globally has become increasingly complex in recent weeks. In addition to Trump’s easing of tariff strategies and the Fed’s release of potential interest rate cut possibilities, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its global GDP forecast in mid-April due to reasons including sluggish manufacturing recovery, geopolitical disruptions, and escalating trade frictions, further reflecting the uncertainty of global economic recovery. The U.S. Treasury yield curve remains inverted, and the yield on the 10-year government bonds quickly fell below 4.5% in mid-April, indicating renewed concerns about future growth. The return of capital to gold and cash positions also highlights a reshuffling of asset allocation strategies. Notably, gold prices briefly surpassed $3,385 per ounce this week, setting a new historical high, reflecting that risk-averse sentiment has not completely faded and forming a contradictory dual-track structure with the rebound of risk assets.
Overall, although policy signals have turned friendlier, there are still significant differences in perceptions among market participants. Some institutions choose to conservatively increase cash and gold positions, while a group of risk-seeking funds gradually replenish assets with larger price fluctuations, including tech stocks and cryptocurrencies. The current market situation reflects not a comprehensive bullish sentiment but a dynamic game of “market psychology re-pricing.” On April 9, Trump announced a temporary suspension of certain tariffs against China, which the market interpreted as a de-escalation of tensions, spurring rebounds in global stock markets and crypto assets. This week, the tone of this policy has continued, with Federal Reserve officials also releasing signals of potential rate cuts. On April 15, Fed Governor Waller stated in a public talk that if corporate investments deteriorate or trade frictions intensify, the Fed should retain policy space and does not rule out adjusting the interest rate path.
In this context, the S&P 500 index rebounded nearly 2.3%, with the Nasdaq posting a weekly gain of over 3%. Bitcoin’s price has gradually risen from about $83,600 on April 14 to today (April 21) at $87,300, representing a weekly increase of approximately 4.4%. Although this rebound does not have a clear catalyst, some market observers believe it is a technical correction to the previous excessive pessimism, coinciding with net inflows from certain ETFs, including Fidelity and Bitwise, which have seen consecutive days of slight net inflows. Although these are not large-scale movements, they have become one of the supporting forces for stabilizing prices.
However, many analyses also remind that the current policy signals and data remain variable. The upcoming PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) inflation data at the end of April and the employment report before the next FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting will be key to determining whether the market continues to favor risk.
On-chain and Derivatives Market: Weak Trading Momentum and Structure
On-chain data has not risen synchronously with prices, reflecting that overall market participation has not yet recovered. According to CryptoQuant data, as of April 20, the number of active Bitcoin addresses remained below 900,000, a decrease of over 20% compared to the peak in March. The average on-chain transaction fee also continues to stay below $1.2, indicating weak trading density and competition level.
In the stablecoin sector, net inflow conditions in exchanges remain sluggish, with small outflows occurring from April 17 to April 20, indicating that while there is no significant withdrawal of capital, large-scale buying support has not formed. Some analyses point out that although the supply of stablecoins has rebounded since last December, most remain in DeFi protocols or non-exchange wallets, reflecting that the current market forces are still inclined towards a wait-and-see allocation rather than actively building positions.
The Fear and Greed Index has gradually risen from 26 on April 14 to 34, indicating a move away from extreme fear, but still showing that most investors maintain a conservative mindset, lacking active entry momentum. The on-chain data has not risen synchronously with prices, reflecting that overall market participation has not yet recovered. According to CryptoQuant data, as of April 20, the number of active Bitcoin addresses remained below 900,000, a decrease of over 20% compared to the peak in March. The average on-chain transaction fee continues to stay below $1.2, indicating weak trading density and competition level.
For institutions, some large exchanges and market makers continue to employ hedging strategies established earlier in the year, maintaining capital flexibility and controlling risk exposure, and have not entered a clear accumulation phase. Large on-chain addresses have predominantly engaged in range arbitrage and acted as liquidity providers (LPs) in the short term, indicating that there is currently no clear directional price expectation in the market.
Although Bitcoin’s price has gradually rebounded to $87,300 this week, it has still maintained a fluctuation range between $84,000 and $88,000. On-chain data shows that activity has not significantly increased, reflecting that this round of rebound is mainly driven by short-term capital replenishment or technical correction, and has not triggered a new wave of trend momentum. In the derivatives market, the funding rate turned positive on April 19, but this has not led to significant expansions in open positions, with leveraged capital maintaining a low-risk allocation.
Regarding Ethereum, its price rebounded to approximately $1,650 this week, generating a weekly increase of about 5%. However, the narrative momentum since the Shanghai upgrade has significantly weakened, and the market’s expectations for its L2 expansion and integration with AI have not formed a main driving force. Some analyses believe that delays in ETF progress and the lack of significant technical updates on the mainnet are also important factors suppressing capital inflows. Solana’s price has maintained a fluctuation pattern over the past three weeks, oscillating between $120 and $140. This week, there was a brief surge during U.S. trading hours, followed by a pullback, indicating that major capital has not significantly entered the market. Although there have been positive news such as Visa’s expanded integration and the growth of the Helium network, these have not translated into sustained buying power, with market observers believing that Solana needs to wait for TVL and user growth to restart the narrative rotation.
The narrative aspect continues the short cycle phenomenon of “narrative every Monday” from last week. The heat of AI assets has not expanded, with only sporadic capital engaging in short-term speculation on low-market-cap projects; the RWA theme continues to attract institutional attention, but actual trading and development data have yet to break through. The NFT market remains sluggish, reflecting that investor risk appetite has not yet warmed up, and the overall narrative mainline is still waiting to take shape.
Overall, despite the friendlier policy environment and the price rebounds of mainstream coins, the lack of a penetrating and sustainable narrative mainline has become the core issue for the current market’s continued wait-and-see pattern.
Market Observations: Key Variables for Future Trends
Although this week the overall market has shown a technical rebound and the macro policy tone has clearly turned milder, from the perspective of on-chain data, capital structure, and narrative momentum, the market still lacks the core driving force necessary to shift trends. A genuine structural rebound still relies on policy clarification, the restart of capital inflows, and the reassembly of narratives and application innovations. In this transitional period, both institutions and retail investors must focus on patiently waiting for signal confirmations rather than chasing uncertain rebounds. Next week will see the release of more U.S. economic data, including PCE and employment reports, the content of which may become key variables in determining whether the market’s risk appetite can further recover.
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