US Releases Key Economic Data on April 30
The United States announced several significant economic data points last night (April 30):
- First Quarter GDP quarterly growth rate was -0.3%, lower than the market expectation of -0.2%.
- March Core PCE annual growth rate was 2.6%, a new low since June 2024, in line with expectations.
The GDP data indicates a substantial slowdown in the economy, while the cooling of the Core PCE suggests that inflation is gradually being brought under control. Following the release of the data, the three major U.S. stock indices experienced a drop of more than 2% at one point during the session, reflecting a growing concern in the market regarding a potential economic recession.
Although the contraction in the economy and the drop in consumer confidence to historical lows are reasonable concerns for traditional financial investors, for cryptocurrency traders, such macroeconomic weakness actually strengthens expectations that the Federal Reserve will initiate a rate-cutting cycle.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market is currently anticipating that the Federal Reserve will revise the number of rate cuts this year to 4 times. Historically, whenever the Federal Reserve begins a loosening cycle and increases dollar liquidity, the price of Bitcoin has often been one of the beneficiaries.
Next, market attention will turn to the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report scheduled for release on May 2, which will reveal the number of new jobs added in the U.S. in April and the resilience of the labor market. If the results fall short of expectations, it will further solidify the logic behind the “rate-cut trade,” potentially providing short-term momentum for the stock market and crypto assets.
From a technical standpoint, $95,500 has become the current key resistance level for Bitcoin. Several analysts have pointed out that if this level can be effectively broken and maintained, it will open up space for an advance towards the $100,000 milestone.