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Strong Momentum, Decoupling from Gold
According to QCP Asia, there has been a noticeable divergence in the movements of Bitcoin and gold: while gold remains stagnant below $3,300 per ounce, Bitcoin continues to reach new highs. The institution believes that the current rebound is healthier compared to the past, reducing the atmosphere of excessive speculation, and is supported by more solid fundamentals. Although there may still be volatility in the short term, the front-end implied volatility remains stable below 50%, reflecting a market state characterized by low liquidity but stable sentiment.
Bullish Signals in the Options Market
Based on QCP Asia’s observations, Bitcoin briefly retraced after surpassing the historical high of $109,600 earlier this week, leading some investors to sell put options. However, a significant influx of buying soon followed in the call options market, most notably with 1,000 call options at a strike price of $130,000 expiring in September being purchased. These contracts are typically leveraged bets on price breakouts, indicating that market expectations for Bitcoin’s mid-term upward movement remain strong.
Structural Capital Flows Support Bullish Sentiment
QCP believes that the current rise in Bitcoin is not purely driven by technical factors, but rather stems from a series of structurally bullish drivers, including:
- The U.S. regulatory environment shifting to a more favorable stance, providing market confidence;
- ETFs and the spot market continuously attracting institutional capital;
- Strategy issuing $2.1 billion in perpetual preferred stock (STRF) with an annual interest rate of 10%, planning to increase Bitcoin purchases.
QCP points out that these factors provide strong long-term support for the market, which may further drive prices upward.