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Historical Poor Performance in August
Slowing Capital Inflows May Signal a Change
Based on historical data, August is one of the weakest months for Bitcoin performance over the past decade, with only four years recording positive returns. The remaining years generally experienced declines ranging from approximately 5% to 20%, with a median of -7.49%.
Slowing Capital Inflows May Signal a Change
The report from 10x Research also mentions that one of the key factors supporting Bitcoin’s rise this year, “capital inflows,” is showing signs of deceleration. Data indicates that a total of $206 billion has flowed into the Bitcoin network so far in 2025, pushing the total cumulative inflow above $1 trillion. However, the moving average inflow over the past 30 days has decreased from $62.4 billion to $59.3 billion.
This downward trend resembles the peak pattern observed in the first and fourth quarters of 2024, possibly indicating that a new consolidation phase is about to begin. Markus Thielen, co-founder and chief analyst at 10x Research, pointed out:
“There is little time left. Although funds from corporate treasuries continue to pour in, the actual price response has been surprisingly muted. This raises doubts that, even with ongoing capital support, the market may not achieve the increases investors expect.”
At the time of the report, it was predicted that Bitcoin could break below the support level of $117,000 (which has now been breached), with subsequent support levels at:
– $112,000
– $106,000–$110,000 range
However, despite the data trending conservatively, bullish investors still hold on to a glimmer of hope. Data shows that in the four previous years with positive returns in August (2013, 2017, 2020, 2021), three of them were bull market years following Bitcoin halvings, similar to this year’s market conditions.
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