Table of Contents
- Regulatory Shift Injects Momentum into the Market
- Long-term Outlook for Bitcoin Remains Bullish
- Market Positioning of Ethereum and Solana
- Short-term Threat of Quantum Computing is Minimal
Regulatory Shift Injects Momentum into the Market
Cathie Wood pointed out that the regulatory environment in the United States has shifted from the previous high-pressure “enforcement-style regulation” led by SEC Chair Gary Gensler to a more friendly model guided by legislation. David Sacks has been appointed to oversee policy planning in both the cryptocurrency and AI sectors. She believes this change not only curbs the outflow of innovation but also provides a clear compliance framework for financial institutions to enter the blockchain space, prompting more banks and fintech companies to launch blockchain-related services, thereby reducing transaction costs and enhancing market efficiency.
She cited that traditional credit card transactions incur fees of 2% to 3.5% as a risk hedging cost, while blockchain payment systems can lower this cost to around 1%; in emerging markets, the cost reduction can exceed 20%, which is significant for promoting inclusive finance and the digital economy.
Long-term Outlook for Bitcoin Remains Bullish
Regarding Bitcoin price forecasts, Cathie Wood stated that ARK’s current optimistic scenario predicts a price of $1.5 million by 2030. However, given the rapid proliferation of stablecoins, part of the Bitcoin demand that originally belonged to emerging markets may be substituted, leading to adjustments in the model’s related weights.
She noted that stablecoins have become an important avenue for emerging markets to acquire US dollars, especially with USDT rapidly gaining popularity after the COVID-19 pandemic, allowing people to avoid purchasing dollars through the black market. Nonetheless, institutional adoption of Bitcoin as a substitute for gold as a store of value remains one of the two core drivers supporting its long-term rise.
Market Positioning of Ethereum and Solana
In the ecosystem of smart contract public chains, Cathie Wood believes that although Ethereum lags behind its competitors in terms of cost and speed, its higher degree of decentralization and security makes it the preferred foundational protocol for institutions. Both Coinbase’s Layer 2 “Base” and Robinhood’s new Layer 2 solution are built on Ethereum.
Solana, on the other hand, is poised to become a leader in consumer-facing applications due to its advantages in transaction speed and user experience. ARK’s cryptocurrency investment portfolio is primarily focused on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, while continuously monitoring the development of Layer 2 infrastructure.
Short-term Threat of Quantum Computing is Minimal
Regarding the market’s concerns about the threat of quantum computing to blockchain, Cathie Wood believes that it will not pose a significant impact on Bitcoin’s security before 2030. She explained that the current pace of AI technology development far exceeds that of quantum computing, and many issues once hoped to be solved by quantum computing are now being addressed by AI. Therefore, capital and research and development focus may continue to lean towards the AI sector.