Pantera Capital’s Commitment to Bitcoin Halving Cycle
Cryptocurrency creator Pantera Capital has demonstrated a steadfast commitment to the Bitcoin halving cycle, enabling it to predict Bitcoin prices with remarkable accuracy as early as 2022. This highlights how the asset’s supply schedule influences its valuation, even in the face of growing skepticism about the cyclical theory.
In November 2022, Pantera released a price chart illustrating Bitcoin’s upward trends following each halving event, showing a gradual decline in return rates for each four-year cycle. Considering the typical time interval between market bottoms and rebounds post-halving, the company at that time predicted Bitcoin would reach $117,482 by August 11, 2025.
According to data from TradingView, when Pantera made its prediction over two years ago, Bitcoin was priced around $17,000, close to the cycle’s low point; on August 11 of this year, Bitcoin’s closing price reached $118,747, an increase of over 600% from the 2022 low, and only about 1.5% higher than Pantera’s predicted price.
Excerpt from Dan Morehead’s May 2024 “Blockchain Letter,” citing the 2022 Bitcoin price forecast. Source: Pantera Capital
It is worth noting that Pantera seems to have adjusted its predicted price. According to previously compiled articles, the institution’s initial cycle target price was $148,636, which differs from the $117,482 target listed in the original text. As of the publication of this article, Bitcoin was trading at $119,425.
This surge emphasizes the reliability of Bitcoin’s four-year price cycle predictions, closely tied to halving events, typically exhibiting the pattern of “post-halving rise, cycle peak, price correction, accumulation of chips.”
Analysts, including Bob Loukas, also utilize cyclical theory to deduce Bitcoin’s highs and lows. Loukas accurately identified the beginning of a new four-year cycle in January 2023—less than two months before Bitcoin reached its bottom.
Will Institutional Adoption Change the Bitcoin Cycle Narrative?
Each Bitcoin halving cycle introduces new narratives, claiming “this time is different” and suggesting that the four-year cycle pattern will eventually cease to exist.
Undoubtedly, the current belief that Bitcoin’s cyclical momentum will be weakened has some merit: Bitcoin has never been so institutionalized, with ETFs and corporations collectively holding millions of Bitcoins.
Since January 2024, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have set a record for the most successful ETF launches in history. According to Bitbo data, ETFs currently hold 7.1% of Bitcoin’s total supply, approximately 1.491 million BTC, while public and private enterprises hold an additional 1.36 million BTC.
Writer and investor Jason Williams points out that the rise of financial strategy companies focused on Bitcoin is one of the reasons he believes “the Bitcoin four-year cycle has ended.”
Source: Jason Williams
Bitcoin advocate Pierre Rochard also concurs with this view, stating: “Halving has little impact on transaction volume, as 95% of Bitcoin has already been mined. The market supply mainly comes from acquiring early holders’ chips, while demand is composed of retail investors in the spot market, ETPs included in wealth management platforms, and financial strategy companies.”
However, some experts argue that the Bitcoin halving cycle will still influence price trends. Seamus Rocca, CEO of the established crypto-friendly bank Xapo Bank, noted in July this year that this cyclical pattern still exists, and the market could still enter a long-term bear market without waiting for a “catastrophic” event to trigger it.
Reference: Related reports: “21Shares Report: What’s Different About the Fourth Bitcoin Halving?”