Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that, while the possibility is slim, if the application for a US Bitcoin spot ETF is rejected this month, the reason is likely that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) wants “more time” rather than a direct rejection.
In an interview with Cointelegraph, Balchunas expressed that, although he and his colleague, ETF analyst James Seyffart, still believe the probability of ETF approval by January 10 is 90%, they have not raised this number primarily due to this concern.
However, Balchunas mentioned that the SEC and Bitcoin ETF issuers have invested a significant amount of time and effort, indicating that a complete rejection of the Bitcoin ETF at the last minute is unlikely.
Analyst Vetle Lunde from cryptocurrency research firm K33 presented a similar view in a market report on January 2, but he believes the probability of ETF rejection is only 5%.
Furthermore, Balchunas believes that if the SEC were to reject the ETF entirely, fund issuers may take a similar approach to cryptocurrency asset manager Grayscale by filing their own lawsuits against regulatory agencies.
Source: Cointelegraph