Author: Blockworks Research
Compiled by: Felix, PANews
The narrative surrounding TON and Telegram has been heating up recently, with many believing that TON could be the next SOL or ETH. Blockworks Research published an article interpreting this, suggesting that TON’s subsequent growth may be lackluster, potentially disappointing many.
**Table of Contents**
Toggle
– Low User Stickiness on Telegram
– Incompatibility with EVM, Limited Use of Programming Languages
– Limited Coverage in Terminal Markets
– Overvalued FDV
Telegram, with its global influence and a considerable daily active user count (DAU), can channel users to TON. By this metric, Telegram is one of the most used applications worldwide.
According to data provided by Telegram, it is one of the most popular applications globally, with a total user count reaching 900 million, ranking 8th among global applications.
However, when measured by DAU, Telegram’s user stickiness appears to be overestimated.
The following chart’s DAU/MAU ratio indicates that despite Telegram’s high MAU (monthly active users), its DAU is relatively low (ranging from 55 million to 200 million, which is very low compared to competing applications), with a DAU/MAU ratio of only 15%.
In contrast, Facebook’s ratio is 69%, Wechat’s is about 67%, Instagram’s is 60%, TikTok’s (only accounting for the US market) is 49%, and Twitter’s is 45%. This suggests that Telegram’s market penetration is low, and its profitable user base is lower than market expectations.
PANews Note: The DAU/MAU ratio can measure the stickiness of a network or application’s users.
The TON ecosystem team will face challenges due to the lack of EVM compatibility and the use of FunC (the blockchain’s native programming language).
The TON Virtual Machine (TVM) is incompatible with the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) because TON uses a completely different architecture (TON is asynchronous, while Ethereum is synchronous). Therefore, the TON ecosystem does not support development in Ethereum’s Solidity programming language.
According to a 2023 developer survey report (with participation from over 90,000 developers), Rust is the most admired language, with over 80% of developers hoping to use it again next year. 46.4% of developers expect to use Solidity.
On TON, there are three programming languages available: Fift, FunC, and Tact. Currently, the most used among these is FunC. Although FunC resembles the C language, it is generally not well-known or admired.
A significant part of the TON narrative growth is that Telegram will become the next WeChat. However, WeChat is blocked outside the US market, serving only the Chinese market.
In stark contrast, today’s application market is dominated by financially strong tech giants with well-established network effects, while Telegram’s largest market is distributed in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China and Eastern Europe), adding a layer of complexity for startups distributing via Telegram.
The following is the distribution of Telegram’s full-year downloads in 2022:
– India: 104 million downloads.
– Russia: 34 million downloads.
– Indonesia: 27 million downloads.
– USA: 26 million downloads.
– Brazil: 21.94 million downloads.
– Egypt: 14.85 million downloads.
– Vietnam: 11.84 million downloads.
– Mexico: 11.61 million downloads.
– Ukraine: 10.76 million downloads.
– Turkey: 9.79 million downloads.
Despite these realities, TON still has tremendous growth potential, with new investors having almost no safety margin.
The chart below shows that among all public chains, TON’s FDV is 8.6 times its network’s annualized DEX trading volume, ranking first and at the highest level.
Additionally, the FDV is 927 times its network’s annualized fees, ranking high among all public chains.
**Related Reading:**
– Overview of 10 Interactive New Projects in the TON Ecosystem
– Original Article Link
This article is authorized for reprint by PANews.