Bitcoin Halving Approaching 100 Days Study Shows Bitcoin Halving Will Accelerate Price Increase After One Hundred Days

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Halving 100 Days Later is Just the Beginning
Bitcoin Nearing the $70,000 Mark
According to a report by CoinDesk, ETC Group’s latest research shows that the bullish impact of Bitcoin due to halving typically takes about 100 days after halving to begin to show.
As is well known, the Bitcoin block reward halving is a built-in code that takes effect every 210,000 blocks (equivalent to four years), reducing miners’ block rewards by 50%. The main purpose is to control the supply of Bitcoin and ensure that it becomes scarce over time, avoiding currency inflation like fiat currencies. The first halving was implemented in 2012, reducing miners’ rewards per block from 50 BTC to 25 BTC, and the most recent halving took place on April 20, further reducing it to 3.125 BTC.
Previous halvings have paved the way for multiple significant price increases, with most of the gains appearing after 100 days. Andre Dragosch, Head of Research at ETC Group, stated on X:
After analyzing the data before and after the three halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020, Andre Dragosch concluded that. The research shows that the average outperformance 100 days after halving (i.e., the difference in performance between X days after halving and X days before halving) significantly increases, becoming statistically significant with a “T-value” exceeding 2%.
T-value is a statistical indicator used in hypothesis testing to determine the degree of deviation of the sample mean from the population mean, which is influenced by sample variability.
Andre Dragosch, when interviewed, stated:
At the time of writing this article, Bitcoin has surpassed $69,000, nearing the $70,000 mark, setting a seven-week high and being only 5.7% away from its all-time high of $73,757.
Recent positive sentiment towards Bitcoin has been primarily driven by the remarks of two US presidential candidates and a prominent Republican senator at the Bitcoin 2024 conference.
Independent presidential candidate Robert Kennedy and Senator Cynthia Lummis discussed plans to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve for the United States, while former President Donald Trump stated that if re-elected, the government would no longer sell Bitcoin. If these plans materialize, they could create significant buying pressure and supply shocks in the Bitcoin market.
Additionally, the personal consumption expenditure index for June rose by only 0.1%, with inflation under control, increasing market confidence in a potential rate cut in September.
The Federal Reserve will make its interest rate decision on July 31, and although the market generally expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged, data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) shows a 95.9% probability of rates remaining between 5.25% and 5.5%.
Expectations for a rate cut in September are strengthening, with an 85.8% probability of rates dropping to 5.0% to 5.25%, which would be the first rate cut since March 2020.