Cryptocurrency asset management company VanEck predicted in a report released in June 2024 that Ether would rise to $22,000 by 2030.
When asked about this, Matthew Sigel, the Director of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, emphasized that the price prediction of $22,000 is for the year 2030 and assumes a 50:50 ratio of Total Value Locked (TVL) between Ethereum and Layer 2 (L2), as well as a 50:50 ratio of Miner Extractable Value (MEV).
VanEck’s model takes into account the expected growth in the total locked value of Ethereum, network revenue, and the amount of Ether consumed by the network, such as burned Ether or Ether taken out of circulation due to transaction fees.
However, Matthew Sigel further pointed out that the initial model assumed a 90:10 distribution of transaction revenue between Ethereum and Layer 2 (including the value extracted by Ethereum from L2, block fees, validation fees, and other fees). But the current situation favors L2, with a ratio of 10:90 based on data from the past four months. This significant change indicates that L2 is extracting more value from Ethereum.
If this distribution ratio of 10:90 remains unchanged under other conditions, the institution’s price target for Ether (ETH) would be reduced by two-thirds, from $22,000 to $7,334.