Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart posted on social media that he still believes there is a 90% chance that a Bitcoin spot ETF will be approved by January 10, even though it did not happen in November, this prediction probability will not change.
Furthermore, James Seyffart added that the most likely scenario at the moment is that all 12 companies that have submitted applications, including Grayscale, will be approved simultaneously, as the SEC may not intend to give any applicant an advantage.
According to regulations, an ETF cannot be approved during the public comment period. Therefore, if the SEC wants to “fairly” approve all applications for physically settled products simultaneously, it must wait for all applications to be in the “period between the end of the current public comment period and the beginning of a new comment period,” with the window from November 9 to November 17 being the best time since Grayscale’s victory. The next window will fall in early January 2024.
However, James Seyffart emphasized that this window is the only opportunity before January for all 12 applicants to be approved simultaneously, and theoretically the SEC can still choose to approve or reject the first 9 applicants at any time from now until January 10.